Physics 2010: An Assessment of and Outlook for Physics

The Board on Physics and Astronomy regularly engages in a survey of all the branches of physics. Since the process occurs every 10 years or so, it is called the decadal survey of physics. The survey process, which takes several years, encompasses atomic, molecular, and optical science, plasma physics, condensed matter and materials physics, elementary particle physics, nuclear physics, and gravitational physics. The most recent decadal survey, Physics in a New Era, was capped off with the release of its overview volume in 2001. The results of the 2001 survey were summarized in an article in Physics Today by Tom Appelquist (Yale) and Don Shapero (NRC). It is now time to begin plans for the next survey, to be called Physics 2010—the title is inspired by the expected completion timeframe for the full survey and its synthesis volume. The decadal survey will focus on an assessment of and outlook for each branch of physics. Each assessment will be conducted by an independent ad hoc study committee appointed by the National Research Council based on the advice and recommendations of the Board. For branches of physics where standing committees with relevant overlapping expertise are available, the standing committees will provide assistance in preparing the project proposal, forming the committee, and selecting qualified reviewers for the report review process. The decadal survey of physics serves two broad purposes: (1) it provides a periodic snapshot of the field that is useful for tracking and understanding the evolution of the science and (2) it provides a process whereby emerging opportunities can be identified and developed. Ultimately, the decadal survey is both inward- and forward-looking.

Volumes of the Survey

Completed

In the Future

General Guidelines for the Physics Survey

For a given discipline, committee members will be sought with expertise in the main subdisciplines. Additionally, however, several members of the committee will be from other branches of physics. This effort will help place each discipline within the broader context of physics and build connections between the different disciplines. In some cases, a committee might even include non-physicists or be chaired by someone from another discipline.

The decadal survey will focus on identifying the science drivers for the physics and the enablers of progress toward science goals. By asking each committee to focus on the compelling intellectual questions, the Board hopes to achieve a more forward-looking decadal survey, one that is more directly useful for program managers in planning their strategies. The Board cautions, however, that each volume of the survey should not try to be exhaustive: a message that is clear and consistent is more important than a comprehensive list of all activities in the discipline.

A prioritization of the science within each discipline will be sought, with an emphasis on ranking the science priorities, not the facilities or instruments necessary to do the work. In an era of constrained budgets and emerging sophisticated opportunities, policymakers have found that reports that prioritize the leading science topics are the most useful for making decisions about the future. As a budget examiner once noted, “These priority decisions have to be made; the community can either be involved by contributing its best thinking, or it can go away and let overworked staff who aren’t experts make own their best guesses.”

Community involvement and effective dissemination are also critical ingredients in any successful report. Each committee is encouraged to work with the American Physical Society and other professional societies to hold at least one town meeting to facilitate public discussion and input to the committee’s deliberations. Likewise, an effective plan for dissemination (follow-up after publication of the volume) is important.