Workshop on Scientific Data for Decision Making Toward Sustainable Development: Senegal River Basin Case Study

Senegal National Committee for CODATA

and

U.S. National Committee for CODATA, National Research Council

Dakar, Senegal

11-15 March 2002

ABSTRACTS OF PRESENTATIONS

(Note that these abstracts are arranged by principal author in alphabetical order)

Lester Chitsulo, UNDP/World Bank/WHO Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases, Geneva, Switzerland

Schistosomiasis control has been implemented successfully in many countries over the past twenty years. However, the number of people infected has not changed substantially and disease burden remains high. The potential for transmission has increased due to water resource developments, with many more people living in endemic areas. Over the same period, TDR invested in research to develop tools for the control of schistosomiasis and other tropical diseases. This research ranged from basic sciences to the ”proof of principle”. TDR and its partners evaluated the efficacy and effectiveness of drugs, validated a range of diagnostic techniques and investigated measures of schistosomiasis morbidity. TDR has also built capacity for disease endemic country scientists to participate in this research. The re-introduction of a disease perspective and strengthening of implementation research in the strategy of TDR has resulted in the reassessment of the research needs in schistosomiasis. While new tools for the control of schistosomiasis are needed, more work should be done to optimise the use of existing tools in resource- limited environments and to formulate new strategies for control. The TDR strategic direction on schistosomiasis research aims towards this until an extensive review by a Scientific Working Group in 2005.

Proliferation of Sails Intermediate Host of Human and Animal Trematodosis in the Senegal River Basin: A New Malacological Colonization

Oumar Talla Diaw, Laboratoire National de Recherches Veterinaires, Dakar

The malacological fauna, especially snails intermediate host of human and animal trematodosis, has been studied in the Senegal River Basin particularly in the delta and Lac de Guiers.

Many surveys realised from 1978 to 1980 permit to identify the potential and natural snails acting in the transmission of trematodosis. There are five species of Bulinus : B. truncatus, B. forskalii, B. senegalensis, B. umbilicatus, B. globosus; one species of Biomphalaria : BIomphalaria pheifferi and one species of Lymnaeidae, Lymnaea natalensis. Bulinus truncatus was the most widespread and abundant snail. It was associated to B. senegalensis and B. forskalii less extensive with lower densities. B. umbilicatus had restricted distribution in the middle valley .whereas Biophalaria pfeifferi, Lymnaea natalensis and B. globosus were found very sparsely distributed in some sites with small populations.

Ecological changes, particularly physical and chemical changes in the water environment, resulted from the Diama and Manantali dams opening (1985-1988). The more important for the ecology of the snails are: the prevention of the intrusion of sea water in the Senegal river, the regularization of the level of water in the Senegal river and other effluents in the delta, the pH of the water becoming a more alkaline environment with a pH of 7-8. Their combination has provided new favourable conditions facilitating the growth, spread, and increase of snails.

The last malacological surveys carried out in the delta and Lac de Guiers from 1989 to 1996 after the opening of dams revealed very large changes in the distribution and abundance of snails. The main signs of these changes is the rapid proliferation of Biomphalaria pfeifferi and Lymnaea natalensis molluscs which seemed to have disappeared since 1977, while populations of Bulinus globosus have colonized more sites in the delta and Lac de Guiers with high densities. The other bulinus remained stable colonizing new habitats. Now, these changes in ecological conditions have allowed these species of snails to flourish colonizing more habitats, increasing substantially in population size and extending their distribution. Another remarkable interesting finding in the recent studies is the colonization of the Senegal River by snails particularly Biomphalaria pfeifferi, Bulinus globosus and Lymnaea natalensis. Generally the intermediate host snails are reported to occur scarcely in largest rivers like Senegal River.

As a result of these environmental changes, optimal ecological conditions favourable to growth and increase of snails have been created. It is easy to imagine the consequences of this situation in the epidemiology of snails borne diseases in the Senegal River Basin. The first outbreak of intestinal schistosomiasis in Richard-Toll (delta of Senegal River) in 1988-1989, is one of the impacts of the opening of dams in the Senegal River Basin.

Oumar Talla Diaw, Laboratoire National de Recherches Veterinaires, Dakar

After Diama dam became operational in 1985 and many hydro-agricultural points were set up, an increase in animal trematodosis was observed in the Senegal River basin. It concerned in particular Fasciola gigantica, Schistosoma bovis, S. curassoni and Paramphistomum sp. The cattle trematodosis epidemiology showed itself in the disease prevalence increase in existing foci (Richard-Toll, Ross Bethio, Mbane and Keur Momar Sarr). Infestation rates in cattle increased from 11 to 27%, 20 to 30% and 15 to 27% for fasciolosis, paramphistomosis and schistosomiasis respectively. In small ruminants, which seemed spared, 2-62% fasciolosis prevalence rates were recorded, whereas they were 25-30% for paramphistomosis. In a parallel manner, new trematodosis foci appeared starting in 1989-1990 at the:

The Overlapping Data Problem, Alioune Dieng, ISRA, Dakar

We consider the overlapping data problem. The conventional estimation approach with overlapping data is to use Newey-West estimation procedure. We argue in favor of using generalized least squares (GLS) instead. Monte Carlo results show that the Newey-West procedure has considerably larger variances of parameter estimates and lower power than GLS. Hypothesis tests using the Newey-West estimation procedure also have incorrect size even with sample sizes as large as one thousand. We also discuss possible estimation approaches when overlapping data occurs in conjunction with some other econometric problem.

Use of Advanced Information Technology for Environmental Management: The Activities of the Ecological Monitoring Center, Amadou Moctar Dieye, Centre de Suivi Ecologique, Dakar

The presentation provides a broad overview of the use of advanced information technology in West Africa in the field of natural resource management and environmental monitoring. It focuses on the use of remote sensing within Senegal at the Ecological Monitoring Center (CSE - Centre de Suivi Ecologique). The CSE is one of the first institutions in the field of remote sensing applications for environmental monitoring in Africa. Remote sensing is used in areas such as vegetation monitoring, agricultural statistics, crop yield forecasting, rainfall estimation, bush fire monitoring, land use and land cover mapping, and environmental impact assessment. Overall, the paper highlights the significant efforts undertaken in the use of modern technology to enhance access to and control over information and how this technology can contribute to the process of sustainable development.

Some applications will be presented, such as the use of GIS (geographical information system) to support health activities in the Senegal River Valley and the on-going initiatives to develop a National Spatial Data Infrastructure.

Mbarack Diop and Samba Yade, TROPICA, Dakar

The Senegal River continuum encompasses linkages from river's source in mountains of Guinea to the coastal and ocean zone at St. Louis. Nutrients and sediment generated in the headwaters are recycled downstream driving plant and biotic productivity. Also lateral connectivity between river and floodplain drives river life; these are not problems to be eradicated. The appearance of aquatic weeds, sedimentation at Diama Dam and health problems at Richard Toll stress need for regional understanding of these processes. Historically, the annual flood at Bakel peaks from August to September, coming almost entirely from upper basin. There has been a dramatic reduction of flow in last twenty years to less than half the 100-year average of 700 m3/s. Total mean annual discharge is 21,000 Mm3. In middle valley there are 72 minor floodplain basins of 1,000 to 15,000 ha supporting traditional flood-recession agriculture, also serving as fisheries breeding areas. Erratic flows and episodic inundation in the river contributed to wide diversity of floodplain habitats and species, which enabled variety of food production systems by middle valley communities. But the high variability of rainfall prevented sustained use of basin resources, and thus OMVS was created in 1972, proposing: 375,000 of pumped irrigation, navigation to Kayes, 800 Gwhr/yr electricity 9 years out of 10, flood mitigation, maintenance of flood recession agriculture in transition to irrigated agriculture, and control of salt intrusion at Diama.

The OMVS program resulted in construction of Diama Dam by 1986, Manantali Dam by 1987 and construction of Manantali hydropower unit and transmission line to Bamako by 2001. Navigation was not implemented. Irrigation development was slower than planned, with only 131,000 ha irrigated by 1998, only half being cropped on average. The major beneficiary of the Manantali and Diama Dams was the development of irrigated sugar-cane at Richard Toll by Senegalese Sugar Company (CSS), based on a steady water supply above Diama Dam. But inadequate agriculture and health planning resulted in major crisis in health and nutrition since 1987, especially the schistosomiasis epidemic at CSS. The Manantali and Diama Dams also reduced the variety of ecosystems in valley, benefiting monocultures such as sugar cane, but also aquatic weed nuisances and water-associated disease vectors. Embankments on both sides now control flooding along Diama Reservoir up to Dagana. Irrigation systems are labor intensive, leaving little time for traditional crops that were major nutrition source for most households. Government-supported rice production used up farmer's cash income, which also had provided variety in diet. Malnutrition is most noticeable among women and children, as well as ethnic minorities. Overall, the basin ecosystems and production systems are now threatened by decreasing productivity due to inadequate resource management, including deforestation, soil erosion, overgrazing and desertification. Species diversity has been reduced, along with elimination of wetlands by diking and expansion of irrigated areas. There are enormous social costs including malnutrition, disease, civil unrest and social conflicts. Morbidity and death are increasing due to malaria, schistosomiasis and diarrheal diseases, formerly held in check by annual dry season.

Opportunities exist for capacity building and regional cooperation in monitoring of riparian ecosystems and agricultural productivity. Consequent improvement in environmental management is the key to maintaining political and economic equilibrium in the Senegal River basin. Action should be initiated on 1) regional cooperation on water resources and environmental management, 2) data collection on hydrology and sediment regimes, 3) developing small hydro-dams and irrigation systems, and 4) wildlife and biodiversity conservation. Available data is either confined to national sub-basins or to single resources. Historical records on flow and rainfall exist from St. Louis up to Bakel, but recent changes in rainfall and flow are not yet included in planning process. General ecological data for the entire watershed is needed, making use of remote sensing, cartography and ground monitoring, especially in the upper basin. Thus a political process is needed to include Guinea in basin organization, and further work should be focused on developing needs of riparian communities.

In-Situ Data Resources on Health impacts of Manantali, Diama and Foum Gleita Dams in the Senegal River Basin

William Jobin, Blue Nile Associates, Cortez, Colorado

Since the great West African drought ending in 1974, concerns about health impacts of water resources development have been a high priority in the Senegal River Basin. The first dam constructed in the basin was at Foum Gleita in Mauritania, on the Gorgol River, the only tributary of the Senegal River in Mauritania. Health data on water-associated diseases were collected specifically for this dam by Blue Nile Associates in 1974 prior to construction, and a few health surveys were carried out several years after construction. The planning for Manantali Dam on the Bafing River tributary in Mali, and Diama Dam near the delta, included several health surveys conducted for the river basin authority OMVS, at the request of the World Bank. The largest study was sponsored by USAID in 1978 and conducted by Gannett Fleming. There were pre- and post-construction surveys at Manantali by INRSP of Bamako, as well as surveys by Blue Nile Associates and the WASH Project of USAID. A limnology unit of the OMVS, stationed at Manantali Dam, started collecting data on disease vectors in the reservoir soon after construction. Disease epidemics around Diama Dam started in 1987, the year the dam was completed, and a large number of surveys on water-associated diseases have been conducted around Diama by local and foreign universities and agencies almost every year since then. The Onchocerciasis Control Program of WHO collected data on River Blindness and blackflies in the upper basin until the disease was controlled, about 1990. USAID sponsored a study on AIDS in the valley in 1995. A large amount of clinical data on all diseases is found in Ministry of Health units of all 3 countries along the river, with the most extensive being in the St. Louis and Rosso areas. The Senegalese Sugar Company maintains its own clinic and medical records in Rosso as well. Records found in Ministry offices in capitol cities are of little use in epidemiologic evaluations of disease impacts of the river development. The World Health Organization has sponsored a multitude of disease surveys along the river, starting with Watson's survey of 1970. These may be found at the WHO country offices, but are no longer in the central library in Geneva.

Complementing Data: Elements of Decision-making for Natural Resource Management in the Senegal River Basin

Kris McElwee, College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon

The lack of scientific data is only one barrier to responsible decision-making in formulating a sustainable development plan for the Senegal River basin. In the mid-1980s, the Senegal River Development Organization (OMVS) built two dams on the river with the goals of improving navigability, providing irrigation water for more intensive and reliable agriculture, and producing hydroelectricity. Since the dams’ construction, these goals have proved more difficult to attain than originally anticipated. Many negative effects of the dams’ construction were either unanticipated or underestimated. In the Senegal River basin, “sustainable development” was heavily weighted toward technological improvements that would help propel Senegal, Mali, and Mauritania into the first world, with relatively less regard for the impact on indigenous social values and structures. As new data emerge on the ecological, health, social, and cultural effects of the dams’ creation and operation, effective policy-making and re-evaluation remain encumbered by the original paradigm—modernization through technological development.

This presentation will provide a marine resource management perspective of the Senegal River basin. The presentation is based on the cooperation and guidance of researchers at the Centre de Recherches Océanographiques de Dakar-Thiaroye (CRODT), interviews with local Senegalese agency and university personnel, and a literature review. An optimal decision-making process ideally would be inclusive of all uses of the river, from headwaters to the ocean, and fully take into account the input of all stakeholders. The challenge of sustainable development of natural resources is to implement adaptive management, responding to changing conditions, priorities, and information. That such changes have not yet occurred in the Senegal River basin’s management illustrates one of the difficulties of natural resource management: decisions are virtually never made on the basis of data alone.

Remote Sensing and Hydrologic Tools for Flooding in Africa: Zambezi, Limpopo and Senegal Watersheds

L.A.K. Mertes^a, T.T. Magadzire^{a, b}, J.P. Verdin^b

Worldwide, flooding causes loss of life and extreme damage to property on an almost-annual basis, and Africa is no exception. In 1999, floods in the Senegal watershed, and many other parts of West Africa killed several hundred people and left thousands homeless. The February-March 2000 floods in the Limpopo watershed cost more than 900 lives and caused extensive damage to infrastructure, while the 2001 floods in the Zambezi watershed were responsible for more than 100 deaths. Although intense flooding often causes much damage, floods also provide the main source of livelihood to many people through flood recession cropping. With such a paradoxical scenario, the ability to tell, in advance, the nature of impending floods becomes necessary, so that any required preparatory action can be taken. Thus, the ability to accurately predict the timing, spatial extent, and volumes associated with a flood event is a fundamental aspect of floodplain management. Towards this end, the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET), through it’s implementation partners, has developed a flood modeling and prediction tool, the FEWS Stream Flow Model (SFM), to allow the timely provision of early warning information on flooding in Africa. This tool is now fully operational for the Limpopo watershed, and is currently being calibrated for other watersheds in Africa. While the SFM provides valuable estimates of stream flow (and hence river stage), a second crucial component of flood information pertains to the spatial patterns and extent of flooding, an issue which can be addressed using fine-resolution satellite images. The Global River Floodplains (GRF – http://www.geog.ucsb.edu/~rivers) project has developed a database identifying remote sensing images for many large rivers in the world. MODIS and Landsat images identified through the GRF database have been processed and analyzed to derive maps showing the extent of inundation, and patterns of sediment concentration, for significant flood events in the Zambezi and Limpopo watersheds. Analysis of these satellite images shows where local water that accumulates on a floodplain before overbank flooding occurs contributes significantly to the patterns and extent of inundation, thus helping to improve the accuracy of the predictions from the FEWS SFM model.

Initial work on the Senegal watershed involves an analysis of the flood events over the past 25 years, the morphometric characteristics of stream order, and the drainage density patterns within this watershed. In particular, the characteristic temporal and spatial patterns of drought and flood within the Senegal Watershed were derived using results from USGS climate modeling, and are compared to the selected remote sensing images.

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^a Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, 93106, USA

^b USGS -EROS Data Center, Mundt Federal Building Sioux Falls, SD 5718-0001, USA

The Report of the World Commission on Dams—An Advocacy for Improved Information Base for Sustainable and Equitable Management of Water and Energy Resources.

Madiodio Niasse, IUCN Wetlands and Water Resources Programme, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

The World Commission on Dams has been established in 1997 under the auspices of the World Bank and the World Conservation Union (IUCN) with a three-pronged mandate of: (a) undertaking a rigorous and independent review of the development effectiveness of large dams; (b) assessing alternatives; and, (c) proposing practical guidelines for the future decision-making. The WCD carried out its activities from May 1998 to Nov. 2000.

Regarding the first prong, the WCD conducted the first comprehensive study on the impacts of dams, but was unable to declare a "final verdict". Lack of data (baseline and impact data) was one of the major constraints to arriving at a definite conclusion on the development effectiveness of large dams. The same applies to the second prong of the WCD mandate, i.e., the non-dam options for delivering water and energy services. Regarding the third prong, WCD recommends that the planning process related to water and energy development be moved upstream, starting with needs assessment and/or validation followed by options assessment. These two critical stages take place before a dam emerges as the preferred option, and require a good quality information base which needs to be established at the national and river basin level as a long term effort, regardless whether a dam is planned or not.

Once an intervention is selected, the subsequent decision-making stages will be: project planning, construction, and operation. At these stages the WCD recommends systematic baseline, feasibility and impacts studies, with an emphasis on parameters such as costs (financial and economic, environmental, social, health, cultural heritage), benefits and also distributional aspects which deal with the sharing of impacts.

Overall, the WCD report proposes a highly data-intensive decision-support system. Of the 26 WCD guidelines, many relate to data collection and analysis. These include: Stakeholder Analysis, Strategic Impact Assessment, Project-level Impact Assessment, Multi-Criteria Analysis, Life Cycle Assessment, Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Distributional Analysis, Valuation of Social and Environmental Impacts, Risk Assessment, Baseline Ecosystem Surveys, Baseline Socio-Economic Surveys, Environmental Flow Assessment. Because of its heavily reliance on good information base, some critics have questioned the adaptability of the WCD proposed decision-making framework to the context of developing countries. The question however is: Is there an alternative to good information base for informed decision making?

The presentation will be organized as follows. The first section will present the WCD process (brief genesis, objectives and methodology). The second section will present the main findings and recommendations of the WCD and their implications for the future water and energy development, especially in Africa. The third section will describe some of the key guidelines related to data collection and analysis.

Data Needs for Environmental Models

William J. Parton, Natural Resources Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado

Environmental models require a large number of data sets to run and test the models. The most critical data include 1) soil physical data, 2) atmospheric weather data, 3) vegetation characteristics, and 4) current and historical land use data. The data needs for the environmental models are model specific, however, there are standard data sets used by most environmental models. The time step of the models has a big impact on the data requirements of the models. Monthly time step models typically require 1) monthly total precipitation, and monthly averaged daily maximum and minimum daily temperatures as atmospheric drivers, 2) soil texture, bulk density and field capacity and wilting point as required soils data, and 3) a general description of land cover and land use management. Daily time step environmental models require more detailed information about the atmospheric driving variables (daily total precipitation, daily maximum and minimum air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and solar radiation) and soils data (saturated and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity, and water potential vs. soil water content, etc). Fortunately, a large number of environmental data sets are available at the local, regional and national level for the important atmospheric driving variables, soil description data, and land cover data. For instance, global data sets at the 0.5 x 0.5 degree scale are available for daily and monthly atmospheric driver data, soil texture data, and land cover and use data. More detailed soil physical data can be derived from the soil texture data and a coarse historical analysis of changes in land use has recently been developed. The atmospheric driving data, soil characteristics, and land use data are available on a finer spatial scale (30 x 30 m², 5 x 5 km², etc.) for select regions of the world. This talk will review the data requirements for different types of environmental models and will summarize the availability of environmental driver data sets for the 0.5 x 0.5 degree global scale, Senegal and other regions in Africa.

Weather and Climate Data, Analyses, and Applications

William A. Sprigg, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona

Weather and climate are among the essential concerns of human existence. Data about weather and climate describe and quantify resources such as wind, rain, and temperature that are shared by everyone and often contested. The outcome of policies adopted by governments as well as individuals in managing food production, water supplies, natural ecosystems, and health services are can be heavily influenced by the quality of available weather and climate information. As decision-making and concepts of sustainable development look further and further into the future, the assembly and analysis of weather records and the creation of information products become more complex.

Observations and records of weather variables important to Senegal extend across all of Senegal and well beyond Senegal’s borders. Accordingly, while observation systems in country are largely controlled, they must also encourage international collaboration. What are the local, regional, and global data and observation systems today and how do they fit the needs for supporting sustainable development? Examples can be drawn from studies in Senegal, Africa extant, and the first assessment of the potential consequences to the United States of climate variability and change.

Data Availability at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for Environmental Monitoring over the Senegal Basin

Wassila M. Thiaw, Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Washington, DC

A review of the data set available at NOAA for climate monitoring over the Senegal Basin is presented. This includes in situ data and satellite derived information. The in situ data consists of data received through the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Global Telecommunication System (GTS). This data set is fed into NOAA’s several databases to construct climatology of several parameters, including rainfall, temperature, wind, etc., and to derive near real time anomalies for those parameters at time scales ranging from 10-days to monthly and seasonal. The difficulties faced with the in situ data are addressed and solutions to remedy this problem are proposed. Satellite derived rainfall estimates are also discussed. The newly developed NOAA satellite rainfall estimation technique (RFE) is presented. RFE is primarily based on: 1) GTS rain gauge measurements; 2) the GOES Precipitation Index (GPI), a technique that derive rainfall estimates from fractional cloud coverage colder than 235K obtained from Meteosat IR data; 3) SSM/I rainfall estimates; 4) AMSU rainfall estimates. RFE is produced operationally at the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) for the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), in support of weather and climate related threat assessments in Africa. Other satellite data and their relevance to environmental monitoring are discussed.

Geospatial Data Availability and Clearinghouse Developments in Countries of the Senegal River Basin

Larry L. Tieszen, Earth Resources Observation System (EROS) Data Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Sioux Falls, South Dakota

The International Program of the USGS EROS Data Center participates in several research and development activities in the countries of the Senegal River Basin. The FEWS-Net program has secured and makes available from its ADDS (Africa Data Dissemination Server) several core data sets for the countries. These are maintained in the EDC archive, are freely available, and are routinely updated. In addition, the program generates several dynamic data sets which are presented in near real time and include: spatially distributed rainfall estimates, water runoff estimates, normalized difference vegetation index, and crop water saturation indices. These are also accumulated in the archive and are available for some on-line access, processing, and down loading.

A current project on Carbon Sequestration in Senegal is generating estimates of carbon stocks and fluxes in three defined geographic areas: Velingara, Bambey, and Podor. These are defining the biophysical potential for sequestration as impacted by climate and management and the socioeconomic incentives for various management practices.

Extensive work in Senegal has provided documented information on natural resources, land cover, and land cover change over periods covering as much as 60 years. These data are both in the form of reports and in digital maps. Conversions of gallery forests, for example, along the Senegal River are clearly documented. Techniques to evaluate changes in the performance of land cover (LCP) (e.g., greenness level, start of growing season, etc.) at the pixel (1km) level have been developed. These identify temporal trends in LCP associated with land degradation (e.g., near boreholes or large cities) or spatial anomalies, which suggest degradation or improvement, associated with conserved areas and other management practices. These anomalies are verified with high-resolution satellite imagery or ground observations.

The EDC has developed Clearinghouse systems for the identification, access, and distribution of spatial data. In these countries, CSE has received the appropriate software and is initiating this system consistent with international (ISO) standards.

An Atlas on Population, Food and Environment: Senegal River Valley and CILSS-member Countries

Hamdou-Rabby Wane, Charge de Programme, CERPOD/INSAH, Bamako, and Visiting Research Fellow, Watson Institute, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island

Purpose: to present the result of a temporal and spatial analysis of the relations between population factors, agricultural land use and performances, nutrition and land degradation. Using a Geographic Information System (GIS), this study shows the interplay of the indicators at different scales (sub-regional 1, national and local (first administrative level). It represents a contribution to structural analysis of vulnerability and is a first step towards a decentralized (at the district or at village-clusters levels) decision-support system for an integrated strategic plan linked to an early warning system targeting poverty alleviation in the Senegal River Basin.

Methodology:

Outcomes:

Prospects:

International Rivers: Using GIS to Identify Opportunities for Cooperation

Aaron T. Wolf, Shira Yoffe, and Mark Giordano, Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University, USA

Despite the growing literature on water and conflict in international river basins, little empirical work has been done to bolster common conclusions that are so widely reported. In order to address this gap, we set out to assess all reported events of either conflict or cooperation between nations over water resources over the last 50 years and to use these events to inform the identification of basins at greatest risk of dispute in the near future (5-10 years). The study is divided into two components: 1) Compilation and assessment of relevant biophysical, socio-economic, and geopolitical data in a global Geographic Information System (GIS), and use of these factors to determine history-based indicators for future tensions along international waterways; and, 2) Using these indicators, identification of basins at risk for the coming decade.

In general, we find that most of the parameters regularly identified as indicators of water conflict are actually only weakly linked to dispute, but that institutional capacity within a basin, whether defined as water management bodies or treaties, or generally positive international relations are as important, if not more so, than the physical aspects of a system. It turns out, then, that very rapid changes, either on the institutional side or in the physical system, are at the root of most water conflict, as reflected in two sets of indicators: 1) "internationalized" basins, i.e., basins which include the management structures of newly independent states, and, 2) basins which include unilateral development projects and the absence of cooperative regimes. By taking our parameters of rapid change as indicators—internationalized basins and major planned projects in hostile and/or institution-less basins—we are able to identify the basins with settings which suggest the potential for tensions in the coming five to ten years. We then identify "red flags," or markers related to these indicators, such that monitoring in the future might continue to help identify targeted regions for cooperation.